Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
